Markel Group Inc. (NYSE: MKL) · balance sheet at 30 Sep 2026 · price at 12 Nov 2026 close
Intrinsic value calculator for Markel Group
An estimate of what one Markel share is worth, built from the company's filings and recalculated each day against the latest closing price. At $1,962 the price is 13% below the base case of $2,253 and 29% below the $2,759 from Markel's own published formula. Every assumption is shown and adjustable. Nothing here is a recommendation.
Where the price sits against each estimate
Dollars per share. The shaded band is this site's range, 10× to 14× after-tax operating earnings.
- 12% hurdle, no growth$1,880
- Market price$1,962
- Low case, 10×$2,050
- Base case, 12×$2,253
- High case, 14×$2,457
- Markel's method, 12× pre-tax$2,759
Summary
Markel is three things under one share count: a specialty insurer, a $13.1 billion portfolio of public stocks, and a group of wholly owned industrial, financial and consumer businesses. Since 2024 the company has published a simple formula for valuing the whole. Applied to the September 2026 balance sheet, that formula gives $2,759 a share.
Markel's formula capitalizes pre-tax earnings at 12 times and does not deduct tax on $9.0 billion of unrealized stock gains. The base case on this site keeps Markel's structure and applies a 22% tax to both, which gives $2,253. The low and high cases use 10 and 14 times after-tax earnings. Both sets of figures are shown side by side throughout.
At $1,962 a buyer pays $1,032 for a share's worth of securities and cash, net of debt and deferred tax, and $930 for the operating businesses. Those businesses earn about $102 a share after tax, so the price implies 9.1 times earnings, an earnings yield of 10.9% on that slice.
| Price per share | Price | Less net securities and cash | Paid for operations | Multiple of $101.76 | Earnings yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market price | $1,962 | $1,032 | $930 | 9.1× | 10.9% |
| Low case | $2,050 | $1,032 | $1,018 | 10.0× | 10.0% |
| Base case | $2,253 | $1,032 | $1,221 | 12.0× | 8.3% |
| High case | $2,457 | $1,032 | $1,425 | 14.0× | 7.1% |
| Markel's published method | $2,759 | $1,032 | $1,727 | 17.0× | 5.9% |
Operating earnings of $101.76 a share are Markel's three-year average adjusted earnings for 2023 to 2025 ($1,598 million), taxed at 22%, divided by 12.25 million shares. Net securities and cash are after a 22% deferred tax on unrealized equity gains.
How the estimate is built
Markel describes its calculation in the fourth-quarter release and the annual report. It has two parts. The earnings part takes adjusted operating income, removes stock dividends and interest on cash and short-term investments, averages three years, and applies a multiple with 12 as the midpoint of an 8 to 16 range. The balance-sheet part adds stocks, cash and short-term investments, then subtracts debt, preferred stock and noncontrolling interests. The sum is divided by shares outstanding.
Bonds are not in the balance-sheet part. They back insurance reserves, and their interest stays in the earnings being capitalized. This site follows the same split and changes two inputs.
| $ millions unless noted | Markel's method | Base case | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Three-year average adjusted earnings, 2023 to 2025 | 1,598.2 | 1,598.2 | FY2025 release |
| Tax on earnings | none | (351.6) | 22% assumed |
| Multiple | 12× | 12× | Markel's midpoint |
| Earnings value | 19,178.1 | 14,958.9 | |
| Equity securities at fair value | 13,110.7 | 13,110.7 | Q3 2026 10-Q |
| Cash and short-term investments | 6,370.6 | 6,370.6 | Q3 2026 10-Q |
| Senior long-term debt and other debt | (4,359.8) | (4,359.8) | Q3 2026 10-Q |
| Redeemable and other noncontrolling interests | (504.8) | (504.8) | Q3 2026 10-Q |
| Deferred tax on $8,979.5 of unrealized equity gains | none | (1,975.5) | 22% assumed |
| Balance-sheet value | 14,616.7 | 12,641.2 | |
| Total value | 33,794.9 | 27,600.2 | |
| Shares outstanding, millions | 12.250 | 12.250 | Q3 2026 release |
| Intrinsic value per share | $2,759 | $2,253 |
Why the earnings input is the 2023 to 2025 average
Markel runs this calculation once a year, so $1,598 million is the latest figure the company has published. Adjusted earnings for the twelve months to September 2026 were $1,888 million. Averaging 2024, 2025 and those twelve months gives $1,822 million, and the base case rises to $2,424. That roll-forward counts the fourth quarter of 2025 twice, so it is offered in the calculator and kept out of the headline.
Why 22%
Markel's 2025 shareholder letter applies a 22% rate to its own unrealized gains and puts the deferred liability at nearly $2 billion. The quarterly effective rate in the Q3 2026 filing was also 22%.
| Segment | $ millions | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Markel Insurance | 1,565.6 | Combined ratio 92.5% for nine months of 2026 |
| Industrial | 335.5 | Q3 revenue up 13%, 10.4% organic |
| Consumer and Other | 216.5 | |
| Financial | 74.5 | After a $205.3 million credit-loss provision at State National |
| Corporate and eliminations | 75.1 | |
| Adjusted operating income | 2,267.2 | |
| Less dividends on equity securities | (176.7) | Valued through the stock portfolio |
| Less interest on cash and short-term investments | (202.6) | Valued through cash |
| Adjusted earnings, twelve months | 1,887.8 | Pre-tax, before interest expense |
Twelve-month figures are fiscal 2025 plus nine months of 2026 less nine months of 2025, each from Markel's releases and Form 10-Q.
Change the assumptions
Every input that involves judgment is adjustable. The presets reproduce the cases named on this page.
- Operating earnings, capitalized
- $1,221
- Stocks and cash, net of debt and tax
- $1,032
- Per share
- $2,253
- After-tax operating earnings per share
- $101.76
- Multiple the market price implies
- 9.1×
- Value as a multiple of book ($1,511)
- 1.49×
The 12% hurdle preset capitalizes after-tax earnings at 1 ÷ 0.12, or 8.3 times, which assumes the earnings never grow. The haircut slider is for readers who think part of the stock and cash pile is committed to insurance reserves and should not count in full.
Price against Markel's formula since 2020
Markel's year-end tables allow the formula to be run for each year since 2020. Run at 12 times, the result compounds at 15.2% a year from 2020 to 2025, which matches the growth rate Markel reports. The stock closed each of those years at 68% to 81% of the formula's value.
Today the stock is at 71% of the formula's value, against 81% at the end of 2025.
| Date | 3-yr avg earnings, $M | Balance-sheet value, $M | Shares, M | Formula value | Closing price | Price ÷ value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 2020 | 746.0 | 9,033.5 | 13.783 | $1,305 | $1,033 | 0.79 |
| Dec 2021 | 969.2 | 9,365.0 | 13.632 | $1,540 | $1,234 | 0.80 |
| Dec 2022 | 1,208.5 | 9,197.1 | 13.423 | $1,766 | $1,317 | 0.75 |
| Dec 2023 | 1,376.9 | 10,982.7 | 13.132 | $2,095 | $1,420 | 0.68 |
| Dec 2024 | 1,488.9 | 12,526.8 | 12.790 | $2,376 | $1,726 | 0.73 |
| Dec 2025 | 1,598.2 | 14,194.4 | 12.590 | $2,651 | $2,150 | 0.81 |
| Sep 2026price at 12 Nov 2026 | 1,598.2 | 14,616.7 | 12.250 | $2,759 | $1,962 | 0.71 |
Year-end inputs are from the intrinsic value appendix of Markel's fiscal 2025 release. The September 2026 row holds the earnings average at the published 2023 to 2025 figure. Markel does not publish a per-share value; the dollar figures are this site's arithmetic on Markel's inputs.
Markel's share repurchases
Markel bought 357,262 shares in the first nine months of 2026 for $685.3 million, an average of about $1,918. That is 15% below this site's base case and 2% below the current price. The third quarter alone was 168,019 shares at about $1,873.
Repurchases in nine months of 2026 exceed all of 2025 by 60% in dollars. The share count is down 10% in five years, from 13.685 million to 12.250 million. $832.6 million remained on the $2 billion authorization at 30 September.
| Period | Shares repurchased | Cost, $M | Average price | Versus $2,253 base |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full year 2025 | 223,000 | 429.5 | $1,894 | −16% |
| First half 2026 | 189,243 | 370.7 | $1,959 | −13% |
| Third quarter 2026 | 168,019 | 314.7 | $1,873 | −17% |
| Nine months 2026 | 357,262 | 685.3 | $1,918 | −15% |
The 2025 average is as stated in the shareholder letter. The 2026 averages are cost divided by shares from the Form 10-Q; Markel's own per-share averages may differ slightly because of settlement timing and excise tax.